Napa Valley Real Estate Market Update | January 2026

As 2026 gets underway, the Napa Valley real estate market is entering the early part of the year with a notable shift in the backdrop — but not yet in the data.

Mortgage rates have recently retreated to near 6%, their lowest levels since 2022. While this change is resetting conversations today, it’s important to clarify upfront that current Napa Valley sales data reflects a market operating under higher rates just weeks ago.

In other words, the numbers we’re seeing now are still largely a look in the rearview mirror.

Understanding the Data Lag: The December Baseline

Closed sales reported at the end of 2025 largely reflect contracts signed in October and November, when mortgage rates were still hovering between 6.2% and 6.5%. As a result, any increase in affordability tied to this recent rate movement will not appear in official “sold” statistics until late February or March.

By year-end, the median Napa Valley sale price settled around $940,000, holding relatively steady while showing a modest correction from the 2024 peak of approximately $975,000. This stability is consistent with a market that has cooled from the highs — but has not meaningfully weakened.

Sales Pace & Inventory: A Stable Starting Point

Heading into the new year, Napa’s sales pace established a resilient baseline.

In December 2025, the city of Napa recorded 58 closed sales, up from 52 sales in December 2024, representing an increase of roughly 11.5% year over year. While this reflects steady demand, it does not yet reflect the impact of January’s rate change.

At the same time, the market continues to work through inventory that was priced for last year’s higher financing environment. Currently, approximately 47% of active Napa Valley listings have made at least one price adjustment, a clear indication that buyers remained disciplined and value-driven through the end of 2025.

Inventory remains tight by historical standards. While new listings in December were slightly higher than last year (41 compared to 33), Napa continues to be constrained by long-standing structural factors including limited land availability, zoning protections, and fewer discretionary sellers.

What the Data Is Signaling Right Now

Several themes are clear in the current Napa Valley market:

• Buyers remain selective and price-sensitive

• Negotiation has returned, but demand has not disappeared

• Homes that launch with realistic pricing continue to perform better than those requiring multiple reductions

In 2025, Napa Valley homes sold for an average of 96% of their original list price, a meaningful shift from the 100%+ ratios seen during the 2021–2022 peak years. This reflects a market where leverage is more balanced — and where strategy matters.

How This Aligns with the Broader Outlook

Recently, Compass released its 2026 Housing Market Outlook, highlighting several national trends expected to shape the year ahead:

• Home prices holding relatively steady

• Gradual improvement in affordability if incomes continue to grow

• Inventory remaining constrained in desirable, supply-limited markets

• Buyers acting more deliberately and value-focused

These themes closely align with what we’re seeing locally in Napa Valley, with the important caveat that Napa tends to move on its own timeline, influenced heavily by property type, location, and pricing precision.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

For Buyers:
We are currently in a transition window. Buyers can benefit from improved January financing conditions while still negotiating against inventory that was priced for 2025’s higher rates. Selection remains limited, but opportunities exist — particularly on homes that have been on the market longer or required adjustments.

For Sellers:
Demand is still present, but it is selective. The prevalence of price reductions underscores the importance of launching with a data-driven pricing strategy. Sellers who price to current market realities — rather than last year’s conditions — are best positioned as buyer behavior evolves.

A Strategic Bottom Line

The market is adjusting, but it is doing so thoughtfully. While spreadsheets still reflect a stable, slightly cooling 2025, the on-the-ground reality in Napa is defined by discipline, limited supply, and careful decision-making on both sides.

Napa Valley is not a headline-driven market. It is a precision market — one where preparation, pricing, and local context matter more than national averages.

If you’d like to explore my Napa Valley market report for a more detailed local breakdown, I’m happy to share those resources and talk through how they apply to your specific goals. Don't hesitate to reach out with any questions about the market or your homes current value.